Understanding the Census Estimates


ONS have just completed a series of very interesting and insightful workshops aimed at helping users’ understand how the Census population estimates are created. The events described the processes ONS went through to get from the raw Census counts to the Census population estimates and included:

  • Estimating under-enumeration (Dual System Estimation – see the Johnny Ball video below for a 5min explanation!)

  • Estimating for bias
  • Estimating for overcount
  • Under-enumeration in Communal Establishments and nationally
  • Quality Assuring the estimates

The slides (pdf) from the event are available.

A reminder that the first Census Outputs for England & Wales will be released on Monday 16 July at 11.00, these will include:

  • Local Authority Usual Resident population estimates (totals, males and females by 5-year age bands)
  • Local Authority household space estimate and short-term migrants
  • Supporting Quality Assurance data (components of the census estimate, confidence intervals, comparisons with other data sources)
  • Explanatory Papers
  • Data visualisations

The data will be released as Excel files.